A Survey to Assess the Current Status of Structured Benefit-Risk Assessment in the Global Drug and Medical Device Industry.

BACKGROUND: This industry survey was conducted to gain insight into the ways structured Benefit-Risk assessment (sBRA) of medical products is approached across drug or medical device developing companies, including frameworks and methods that are currently used and areas where future work is being planned. METHODS: A survey containing 28 questions covering five key areas of sBRA was set-up and shared with representatives from the participating companies. Each company was asked to complete a single survey response including inputs across the company's multidisciplinary key representatives involved in benefit-risk assessment. RESULTS: Of the 26 participating companies, 21 (81%) are conducting sBRA. Considering these 21 qualitative frameworks were used by almost every company (19, 90%), while only 12 (57%) have used a quantitative method. Many companies have sBRA training (17, 81%), document templates (16,76%), Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs)/checklists (13, 62%), and /or best practice manuals/examples (12,57%) available. Considering all 26 companies Software tools (15, 58%) and BR planning documents (11,42%) were identified as areas into which many companies intend to put effort. CONCLUSIONS: The industry survey confirmed a wide usage of sBRA by many companies involved in research and development. Nevertheless, sBRA is evolving and several future opportunities like the implementation of visualization tools were identified by the representatives of the pharmaceutical companies. Finally, challenges like the cross-functional comprehension of the added value of sBRA are still seen.

An Inter-regional US Blood Supply Simulation Model to Evaluate Blood Availability to Support Planning for Emergency Preparedness and Medical Countermeasures.

OBJECTIVES: Planning for a response to threats like pandemics or mass casualty events is a national priority. The US blood supply system can be particularly vulnerable to such events. It is important to understand the impacts of emergency situations on blood availability and the resiliency of the US blood supply system. METHODS: On the basis of the Stock-and-Flow simulation model of the US blood supply system, we developed an inter-regional blood transfer system representing the action of multiple blood collectors and distributors to enable effective planning of strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions to the blood supply system in the event of a national emergency. RESULTS: We simulated a pandemic or mass casualty event on both a national and an inter-regional blood supply system. Differences in the estimated impacts demonstrated the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variations of blood collection and utilization across US regions. The absence of blood shortage in both emergency scenarios highlighted the resilience of the inter-regional system to meet the potential associated blood demand. CONCLUSIONS: Our inter-regional model considered complex factors and can be a valuable tool to assist regulatory decision-making and strategic planning for emergency preparedness to avoid and mitigate associated adverse health consequences. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:201-210).

Modeling the potential impact on the US blood supply of transfusing critically ill patients with fresher stored red blood cells.

BACKGROUND: Although some studies have suggested that transfusion recipients may have better medical outcomes if transfused with red blood cell units stored for a short time, the overall body of evidence shows mixed results. It is important to understand how using fresher stored red blood cell units for certain patient groups may affect blood availability. METHODS: Based on the Stock-and-Flow simulation model of the US blood supply developed by Simonetti et al. 2014, we evaluated a newly implemented allocation method of preferentially transfusing fresher stored red blood cell units to a subset of high-risk group of critically ill patients and its potential impact on supply. RESULTS: Simulation results showed that, depending on the scenario, the US blood total supply might be reduced between 2-42%, when compared to the standard of care in transfusion medicine practice. Among our simulated scenarios, we observed that the number of expired red blood cell units modulated the supply levels. The age threshold of the required red blood cell units was inversely correlated with both the supply levels and the number of transfused units that failed to meet that age threshold. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to develop a comprehensive framework to evaluate the impact of preferentially transfusing fresher stored red blood cells to the higher-risk critically ill patients on supply. Model results show the difficulties to identify an optimal scenario.

A stock-and-flow simulation model of the US blood supply.

BACKGROUND: Lack of reporting requirements for the amount of blood stored in blood banks and hospitals poses challenges to effectively monitor the US blood supply. Effective strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions in the supply require an understanding of the daily amount of blood available in the system. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: A stock-and-flow simulation model of the US blood supply was developed to obtain estimates of the daily on-hand availability of blood, with uncertainty and by ABO/Rh type. The model simulated potential impact on supply of using different blood management practices for transfusion: first in-first out (FIFO), using the oldest stored red blood cell units first; non-FIFO likely oldest, preferentially selecting older blood; and non-FIFO likely newest, preferentially selecting younger blood. RESULTS: Simulation results showed higher estimates of the steady-state of the blood supply level for FIFO (1,630,000 units, 95% prediction interval [PI] 1,610,000-1,650,000) than non-FIFO scenarios (likely oldest, 1,530,000 units, 95% PI 1,500,000-1,550,000; and likely newest, 1,190,000 units, 95% PI 1,160,000-1,220,000), either for overall blood or by blood types. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this model represents a first attempt to evaluate the impact of different blood management practices on daily availability and distribution of blood in the US blood supply. The average storage time before blood is being issued was influenced by blood management practices, for preferences of blood that is younger and also that use specific blood types. The model also suggests which practice could best approximate the current blood management system and may serve as useful tool for blood management.

Survival of European patients diagnosed with myeloid malignancies: a HAEMACARE study.

Population-based information on the survival of patients with myeloid malignancies is rare mainly because some entities were not recognized as malignant until the publication of the third revision of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology and World Health Organization classification in 2000. In this study we report the survival of patients with myeloid malignancies, classified by updated criteria, in Europe. We analyzed 58,800 cases incident between 1995 to 2002 in 48 population-based cancer registries from 20 European countries, classified into HAEMACARE myeloid malignancy groupings. The period approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival in 2000-2002. The relative overall survival rate was 37%, but varied significantly between the major groups: being 17% for acute myeloid leukemia, 20% for myelodysplastic/myeloproliferative neoplasms, 31% for myelodysplastic syndromes and 63% for myeloproliferative neoplasms. Survival of patients with individual disease entities ranged from 90% for those with essential thrombocythemia to 4% for those with acute myeloid leukemia with multilineage dysplasia. Regional European variations in survival were conspicuous for myeloproliferative neoplasms, with survival rates being lowest in Eastern Europe. This is the first paper to present large-scale, European survival data for patients with myeloid malignancies using prognosis-based groupings of entities defined by the third revision of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology/World Health Organization classifications. Poor survival in some parts of Europe, particularly for treatable diseases such as chronic myeloid leukemia, is of concern for hematologists and public health authorities.

Improved population-based probability of developing cancer when direct estimates of the cancer-free population are available.

Age-conditional probabilities of developing a first cancer represent the transition from being cancer-free to developing a first cancer. Natural inputs into their calculation are rates of first cancer per person-years alive and cancer-free. However these rates are not readily available because they require information on the cancer-free population. Instead rates of first cancer per person-years alive, calculated using as denominator the mid-year populations, available from census data, can be easily calculated from cancer registry data. Methods have been developed to estimate age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer based on these easily available rates per person-years alive that do not directly account for the cancer-free population. In the last few years models (Merrill et al., Int J Epidemiol 29(2):197-207, 2000; Mariotto et al., SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 2002; Clegg et al., Biometrics 58(3):684-688, 2002; Gigli et al., Stat Methods Med Res 15(3):235-253, 2006, and software (ComPrev:Complete Prevalence Software, Version 1.0, 2005) have been developed that allow estimation of cancer prevalence (DevCan: Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer Software, Version 6.0, 2005). Estimates of population-based cancer prevalence allows for the estimation of the cancer-free population and consequently of rates per person-years alive and cancer-free. In this paper we present a method that directly estimates the age-conditional probabilities of developing a first cancer using rates per person-years alive and cancer-free obtained from prevalence estimates. We explore conditions when the previous and the new estimators give similar or different values using real data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program.

Survival of European patients diagnosed with lymphoid neoplasms in 2000-2002: results of the HAEMACARE project.

BACKGROUND: The European Cancer Registry-based project on hematologic malignancies (HAEMACARE), set up to improve the availability and standardization of data on hematologic malignancies in Europe, used the European Cancer Registry-based project on survival and care of cancer patients (EUROCARE-4) database to produce a new grouping of hematologic neoplasms (defined by the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, Third Edition and the 2001/2008 World Health Organization classifications) for epidemiological and public health purposes. We analyzed survival for lymphoid neoplasms in Europe by disease group, comparing survival between different European regions by age and sex. DESIGN AND METHODS: Incident neoplasms recorded between 1995 to 2002 in 48 population-based cancer registries in 20 countries participating in EUROCARE-4 were analyzed. The period approach was used to estimate 5-year relative survival rates for patients diagnosed in 2000-2002, who did not have 5 years of follow up. RESULTS: The 5-year relative survival rate was 57% overall but varied markedly between the defined groups. Variation in survival within the groups was relatively limited across European regions and less than in previous years. Survival differences between men and women were small. The relative survival for patients with all lymphoid neoplasms decreased substantially after the age of 50. The proportion of 'not otherwise specified' diagnoses increased with advancing age. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to analyze survival of patients with lymphoid neoplasms, divided into groups characterized by similar epidemiological and clinical characteristics, providing a benchmark for more detailed analyses. This Europe-wide study suggests that previously noted differences in survival between regions have tended to decrease. The survival of patients with all neoplasms decreased markedly with age, while the proportion of 'not otherwise specified' diagnoses increased with advancing age. Thus the quality of diagnostic work-up and care decreased with age, suggesting that older patients may not be receiving optimal treatment.

Incidence of hematologic malignancies in Europe by morphologic subtype: results of the HAEMACARE project.

Changing definitions and classifications of hematologic malignancies (HMs) complicate incidence comparisons. HAEMACARE classified HMs into groupings consistent with the latest World Health Organization classification and useful for epidemiologic and public health purposes. We present crude, age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates for European HMs according to these groupings, estimated from 66,371 lymphoid malignancies (LMs) and 21,796 myeloid malignancies (MMs) registered in 2000-2002 by 44 European cancer registries, grouped into 5 regions. Age-standardized incidence rates were 24.5 (per 100,000) for LMs and 7.55 for MMs. The commonest LMs were plasma cell neoplasms (4.62), small B-cell lymphocytic lymphoma/chronic lymphatic leukemia (3.79), diffuse B-cell lymphoma (3.13), and Hodgkin lymphoma (2.41). The commonest MMs were acute myeloid leukemia (2.96), other myeloproliferative neoplasms (1.76), and myelodysplastic syndrome (1.24). Unknown morphology LMs were commonest in Northern Europe (7.53); unknown morphology MMs were commonest in Southern Europe (0.73). Overall incidence was lowest in Eastern Europe and lower in women than in men. For most LMs, incidence was highest in Southern Europe; for MMs incidence was highest in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Differences in diagnostic and registration criteria are an important cause of incidence variation; however, different distribution of HM risk factors also contributes. The quality of population-based HM data needs further improvement.

The cure of cancer: a European perspective.

Cancer survival analyses based on cancer registry data do not provide direct information on the main aim of cancer treatment, the cure of the patient. In fact, classic survival indicators do not distinguish between patients who are cured, and patients who will die of their disease and in whom prolongation of survival is the main objective of treatment. In this study, we applied parametric cure models to the cancer incidence and follow-up data provided by 49 EUROCARE-4 (European Cancer Registry-based study, fourth edition) cancer registries, with the aims of providing additional insights into the survival of European cancer patients diagnosed from 1988 to 1999, and of investigating between-population differences. Between-country estimates the proportion of cured patients varied from about 4-13% for lung cancer, from 9% to 30% for stomach cancer, from 25% to 49% for colon and rectum cancer, and from 55% to 73% for breast cancer. For all cancers combined, estimates varied between 21% and 47% in men, and 38% and 59% in women and were influenced by the distribution of cases by cancer site. Countries with high proportions of cured and long fatal case survival times for all cancers combined were characterised by generally favourable case mix. For the European pool of cases both the proportion of cured and the survival time of fatal cases were associated with age, and increased from the early to the latest diagnosis period. The increases over time in the proportions of Europeans estimated cured of lung, stomach and colon and rectum cancers are noteworthy and suggest genuine progress in cancer control. The proportion of cured of all cancers combined is a useful general indicator of cancer control as it reflects progress in diagnosis and treatment, as well as success in the prevention of rapidly fatal cancers.

Estimating complete prevalence of cancers diagnosed in childhood.

A method of estimating the complete prevalence of cancers diagnosed in childhood called CHILDPREV (CHILDhood PREValence), is presented. It is a semi-parametric method based on cancer registry data and on the completeness index method. It allows estimating prevalence even when no observation is available (typically older patients alive at the prevalence date may have been diagnosed with cancer before the introduction of the registry). The method was validated on Connecticut Tumor Registry data, which has 62 years of follow-up and provides complete prevalence, and compared with the fully parametric PIAMOD method. Results of complete childhood prevalence estimates based on SEER-9 cancer registries data for acute lymphocytic leukemia and all cancer sites combined are presented.

Hepatocellular carcinoma: trends of incidence and survival in Europe and the United States at the end of the 20th century.

OBJECTIVES: There is large geographic variation in incidence levels and time trends of hepatocellular carcinoma. We compared population-based liver cancer incidence and survival in European and U.S. populations in order to elucidate geographic differences and time trends for these variables. METHODS: Since comparisons based on cancer registry data are problematic because of variations in liver cancer definition and coding, we considered a subset of cases likely to be mainly hepatocellular carcinoma, suitable for international comparison. Incidence and 5-yr relative survival were calculated from cases diagnosed in five European regions (30,423 cases) and the United States (6,976 cases) in 1982-1994. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence was highest in southern Europe (12/100,000 in men and 3/100,000 in women in 1992-94) and lowest in northern Europe, where incidence was similar to that of the United States (3/100,000 in men, <1/100,000 in women). Over the study period, incidence remained stable in the United States and most of Europe, except for a notable increase in southern Europe. Five-year relative survival was <10% in Europe, ranging from 8% (southern Europe) to 5% (eastern Europe), and 6% in the United States. Survival increased slightly with time, mainly in southern Europe and was unaffected by sex, but was better in younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing incidence in southern Europe is probably related to hepatitis B and C infection and increasing alcohol intake, while improving survival may be due to greater surveillance for cirrhosis. The survival gap between clinical and population-based series suggests management is better in centers of excellence.